Cuba forecast to face a 2,072 MW power shortfall this Saturday

The forecast for peak demand this Saturday, October 17, anticipates a 2,072 MW impact in Cuba. The figure describes an expected scenario for the power system’s peak and is presented as conditional on the assumptions in the calculation remaining unchanged. It is therefore a forecast, not an observed account of what occurred throughout the day.

For that period, the Electric Union estimates maximum demand at 2,800 MW and available capacity at 758 MW. The amounts represent the two sides of the system estimate at the hour of highest consumption: the electricity expected to be required and the capacity expected to be available. The report places both figures within the same peak-demand forecast.

Subtracting expected availability from maximum demand yields an arithmetic difference of 2,042 MW. That figure is identified as the forecast deficit. The estimated impact, by contrast, is set at 2,072 MW. The text presents both amounts for the same period but does not treat them as equivalent: one is the difference between demand and availability, while the other is the level of disruption that could occur.

The distinction is important for reading the calculation correctly: 2,800 MW is forecast maximum demand, 758 MW is reported availability and 2,042 MW is the result of comparing them. The 2,072 MW figure is the anticipated impact during that period. The available information provides no subsequent measurement and does not confirm that the projected level materialized; it remains a conditional forecast based on the assumptions considered.

The scenario refers specifically to Saturday’s peak and is not a cumulative figure for the entire day. Its time frame distinguishes the expected impact at the hour of maximum demand from other outages that might occur at different times. The estimate summarizes the expected pressure on Cuba’s power service during that interval, while the demand and availability figures explain the forecast gap.